Thinking in Bets

by Annie Duke

Category: Business & Economics

Book Reviews

  • What are the books that made you better at 'business'? Define business however you like Here's my top 5 * Influence (@RobertCialdini) * The Effective Manager (@mahorstman) * The Goal (Goldratt) * The Mom Test (@robfitz ) * Thinking in Bets (@AnnieDuke) What are yours? https://t.co/2u4f72JoxKLink to Tweet
  • 7/ Why? Because the manager doesn’t know if the salesperson is on the right track. The salesperson could have done everything right, but still lost. Or everything wrong and still won. Here I like @AnnieDuke's decision quality vs. outcome Great book btw https://t.co/vFJHsQ0FlnLink to Tweet
  • @JasonBordoff @Ed_Crooks @shannonpareil @AimeePKeane @rkapkap @turi @aasseily @christianhern @matthewclifford @TheAnnaGat @chris_wigley @azeem @brettbivens @gonsanchezs @sowers @eporres @rahulpowar @cee @itsflamant @robertwrighter @KimGhattas @arusbridger @MazzucatoM @drissbb @jtepper2 @shumonbasar @zinkovigor @MatildeGiglio @h0d3r @emmavj @Zielina @hannahsarney @YuanfenYang @rasmus_kleis @mfilippino @ointhefield @lilahrap @Emiliyadotcom @CardiffGarcia @BobbyAllyn @EricGPlatt @SycoraxPine @elliottholt @annaknicolaou @ConorDougherty @bermanjeff @neal_katyal @dpatil @OSullivanMeghan @jahimes no photo as mine are all digital: + Path of Least Resistance by Robert Fritz + The History of Christian Theology by Phillip Cary + Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke + Dominion by Tom Holland + Disunited Nations by Peter Zeihan + LifeSpan by David SinclairLink to Tweet
  • Excited that the kindle version of Thinking in Bets is a monthly deal on Amazon. Will be just $2.99 for the whole month. https://t.co/QhuMQDQwZk https://t.co/gkG1hDE6QLLink to Tweet
  • Amazon’s pricing algorithm remains a mystery to me but that mystery means Thinking in Bets is just $8 today :) https://t.co/2cZYvQnZtY https://t.co/zowtOdeOpFLink to Tweet
  • New post: Really enjoyed reading Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, which encourages us to think of decisions as structured bets in an attempt to overcome the cognitive biases that cause poor decision-making https://t.co/yn3nfjNTttLink to Tweet
  • Okay, since @calebhicks asked — the four best books I read in 2018: Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke, The Science of Success, Charles Koch, A Gentleman in Moscow, Amor Towles, Conspiracy: Ryan Holiday, Bonus round: An Absolutely Remarkable Thing, Hank Green.Link to Tweet

About Book

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

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