Annie Duke
Speaker/writer/student of decision science. New book #QUIT out now! Author of #ThinkinginBets & #HowToDecide. I used to play poker. Navigating uncertainty.
60+ Book Recommendations by Annie Duke
This Is What It Sounds Like
Susan Rogers
Congratulations to the other selection, THIS IS WHAT IT SOUNDS LIKE, by Susan Rogers and my good friend Ogi Ogas. So happy to be selected together! Excited to engage with this amazing community 😊 @NextBigIdeaClub https://t.co/Ai84VLCxeh
Quit
Annie Duke
IT'S PUB DAY! So excited to share that #QUIT is out TODAY! 🎉 Grateful and humbled by all who have made this book happen. Grab your copy today and you can still join @davidmcraney and me to discuss it tonight. https://t.co/tNR7w2quE8
Nudge
Richard H. Thaler
@R_Thaler coauthored a seminal book in behavioral economics. _Nudge_ along with @CassSunstein. This book is a must-read in the space and a perennial bestseller, exploring how we can architect our environment to encourage better decision making. https://t.co/PJ7hl551do
Misbehaving
Richard H. Thaler
@Richard_Thaler is the author of _Misbehaving_, an autobiographical account of the struggle to transform economics from old school rational actor theory to our modern understanding of human behavior & cognitive bias. https://t.co/6k6DuWDUmJ
The Alignment Problem
Brian Christian
A jaw-dropping exploration of everything that goes wrong when we build AI systems and the movement to fix them..@BrianChristian is also the author of THE ALIGNMENT PROBLEM, a finalist for the @latimesbooks Prize. It’s “a jaw-dropping exploration of everything that goes wrong when we build AI systems and the movement to fix them.” An important book in today’s world. https://t.co/gL6tFCYSH7
The Most Human Human
Brian Christian
As you can tell, @BrianChristian is one of my go-to authors. He also wrote THE MOST HUMAN HUMAN (he is prolific!) which explore how computers are reshaping how we think about what it means to be human (starting with the Turing Test). https://t.co/uOSU4hEXJ7
Algorithms to Live By
Brian Christian
Huge thank you to @BrianChristian for blurbing #QUIT. Brian is the author of ALGORITHMS TO LIVE BY along with the incomparable Tom Griffiths. It is a perennial best seller that explores how simple computer algorithms can untangle human decision making. https://t.co/yRvarpVE66
Noise
Daniel Kahneman
Danny also just published NOISE along with @CassSunstein and @SobOliv, a fantastic exploration on how variability in human judgment addles our decision making. I LOVE this book and use the concepts in my everyday work. https://t.co/GAUMINbNn9
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman
A psychologist draws on years of research to introduce his "machinery of the mind" model on human decision making to reveal the faults and capabilities of intuitive versus logical thinking.Kahneman is a prolific researcher who won the Nobel prize for his work on prospect theory. There are too many foundational papers to cite but THINKING FAST AND SLOW is a fantastic intro to his outsized influence on the discipline of behavioral economics: https://t.co/TJuoNS0Qle
- The old saying goes, ''To the man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.'' But anyone who has done any kind of project knows a hammer often isn't enough. The more tools you have at your disposal, the more likely you'll use the right tool for the job - and get it done right. The same is true when it comes to your thinking. The quality of your outcomes depends on the mental models in your head. And most people are going through life with little more than a hammer. Until now. The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, productivity, and how clearly you see the world. You will discover what forces govern the universe and how to focus your efforts so you can harness them to your advantage, rather than fight with them or worse yet- ignore them. Upgrade your mental toolbox and get the first volume today. AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY Farnam Street (FS) is one of the world's fastest growing websites, dedicated to helping our readers master the best of what other people have already figured out. We curate, examine and explore the timeless ideas and mental models that history's brightest minds have used to live lives of purpose. Our readers include students, teachers, CEOs, coaches, athletes, artists, leaders, followers, politicians and more. They're not defined by gender, age, income, or politics but rather by a shared passion for avoiding problems, making better decisions, and lifelong learning. AUTHOR HOME Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
@ShaneAParrish is also obsessed with mental models and has written extensively on the topic, publishing The Great Mental Models (3 volumes!). These are great books to help you become a better thinker. https://t.co/s9DPjbhm23
Decision Leadership
Don A. Moore
.@DonAndrewMoore also just released a new book with @BazermanMax called DECISION LEADERSHIP. Excellent! Another book I highly recommend. Max was also super helpful w/#QUIT- both in giving me his thoughts on the topic & making intros for me. Thank you, Max! https://t.co/niS2qOgzMR
Perfectly Confident
Don A Moore
"Is confidence always a good thing? Don Moore, Professor of Management of Organizations at the Haas School of Business, argues that confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth"--@donandrewmoore is an incredible scientist w/special expertise in biases about confidence. I LOVE his book PERFECTLY CONFIDENT. If you haven’t read it yet, you should! It's a wonderful book on how our calibration on confidence goes awry & how to improve https://t.co/bRZQtOgn3n
Discipline Is Destiny
Ryan Holiday
Just to repeat myself, @RyanHoliday has a new book coming out THIS TUESDAY! I am lucky enough to have read and I loved it! I know you will, too! Discipline is Destiny is going to be another must-read bestseller! https://t.co/sIIkfGx08W
Ego Is the Enemy
Ryan Holiday
.@RyanHoliday also is the author of Ego is the Enemy, another bestseller, on the value of putting your higher goals above your need for recognition. https://t.co/lAOgGQKQH4
Stillness Is the Key
Ryan Holiday
.@RyanHoliday followed these two bestsellers with Stillness is the Key, another bestseller…yes, he is an incredible writer! https://t.co/sLet2PGc1X
Courage Is Calling
Ryan Holiday
.@RyanHoliday has committed to writing a book a year (!!) about the stoic virtues. Discipline is Destiny is the second of these books. The first was Courage is Calling, yes another bestseller! https://t.co/JGGzyhJrSg
Discipline Is Destiny
Ryan Holiday
.@RyanHoliday has a new book coming out THIS TUESDAY! Discipline is Destiny is excellent (I was lucky enough to read an advance copy). Buy it now! https://t.co/2q8Gx9gkxH
The Obstacle Is the Way
Ryan Holiday
Ryan is best known for his books on #stoicism. His first book I read was The Obstacle is the Way on how to turn adversity into advantage. It's helped me thru some hard times. It is a breezy read on stoic philosophy that doesn’t sacrifice depth. https://t.co/LMNI2NjAOb
Range
David Epstein
The #1 New York Times bestseller that has all America talking: as seen/heard on CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS, Morning Joe, CBS This Morning, The Bill Simmons Podcast, Rich Roll, and more. "Fascinating. . . . If you're a generalist who has ever felt overshadowed by your specialist colleagues, this book is for you." --Bill Gates "The most important business--and parenting--book of the year." --Forbes "Urgent and important. . . an essential read for bosses, parents, coaches, and anyone who cares about improving performance." --Daniel H. Pink Shortlisted for the Financial Times/McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award Plenty of experts argue that anyone who wants to develop a skill, play an instrument, or lead their field should start early, focus intensely, and rack up as many hours of deliberate practice as possible. If you dabble or delay, you'll never catch up to the people who got a head start. But a closer look at research on the world's top performers, from professional athletes to Nobel laureates, shows that early specialization is the exception, not the rule. David Epstein examined the world's most successful athletes, artists, musicians, inventors, forecasters and scientists. He discovered that in most fields--especially those that are complex and unpredictable--generalists, not specialists, are primed to excel. Generalists often find their path late, and they juggle many interests rather than focusing on one. They're also more creative, more agile, and able to make connections their more specialized peers can't see. Provocative, rigorous, and engrossing, Range makes a compelling case for actively cultivating inefficiency. Failing a test is the best way to learn. Frequent quitters end up with the most fulfilling careers. The most impactful inventors cross domains rather than deepening their knowledge in a single area. As experts silo themselves further while computers master more of the skills once reserved for highly focused humans, people who think broadly and embrace diverse experiences and perspectives will increasingly thrive..@DavidEpstein is a brilliant writer & journalist. His book, RANGE, is a #1 @NYTimes bestseller. It's an engaging & thought-provoking exploration of the counterintuitive idea that being a generalist (not specialist) will = more creativity and success. https://t.co/ZLRPWhvUlt
The Sports Gene
David Epstein
A Sports Illustrated senior writer's controversial exploration of the genetic underpinnings of athletic success explores the roles of both biology and training, arguing that nature and training are equally necessary components of athletic achievement while considering such topics as race, gender and genetic testing..@DavidEpstein is also the author of The Sports Gene, another @NYTimes bestseller (yes, he is an amazing writer!) Highly recommend this book also, particularly for its exploration of the nature vs. nurture debate. https://t.co/jHKpicqgBw
How to Change
Katy Milkman
Award-winning Wharton Professor and Choiceology podcast host Katy Milkman has devoted her career to the study of behavior change. In this ground-breaking book, Milkman reveals a proven path that can take you from where you are to where you want to be, with a foreword from psychologist Angela Duckworth, the best-selling author of Grit. Set audacious goals. Foster good habits. Create social support. You've surely heard this advice before. If you've ever tried to change or encourage it -- to boost exercise or healthy eating, to prevent missed deadlines or kick-start savings -- then you know there are thousands of apps, books, and YouTube videos promising to help and offering sound guidance. And yet, you're still not where you want to be. This trailblazing book from award-winning behavioral scientist and Wharton Professor Katy Milkman explains why. In a career devoted to uncovering what helps people change, Milkman has discovered a crucial thing many of us get wrong: our strategy. Change, she's learned, comes most readily when you understand what's standing between you and success and tailor your solution to that roadblock. If you want to work out more but find exercise difficult and boring, downloading a goal-setting app probably won't help. But what if, instead, you transformed your workouts so they became a source of pleasure instead of a chore? Turning an uphill battle into a downhill one is the key to success. Drawing on Milkman's original research and the work of her dozens of world-renowned scientific collaborators, How to Change shares an innovative new approach that will help you change or encourage change in others. Through case studies, engaging stories, and examples from cutting-edge research, this book illustrates how to identify and overcome the barriers that regularly stand in the way of change. How to Change will teach you: * Why timing can be everything when it comes to making a change * How to turn temptation and inertia into assets that can help you conquer your goals * That giving advice, even if it's about something you're struggling with, can help you achieve more Whether you're a manager, coach, or teacher aiming to help others change for the better or are struggling to kick-start change yourself, How to Change offers an invaluable, science-based blueprint for achieving your goals, once and for all.Katy is best known for her significant work on behavior change as a professor @Wharton. Her bestseller, How to Change, came out last year & received rave reviews. The book is truly a must-read for anyone looking to kick start a change in their life. https://t.co/907jqxFw4s
Expert Political Judgment
Philip E. Tetlock
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.Phil also published Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We know? It is an excellent read about the good, the bad, and the ugly of punditry and political prediction. Highly recommend both of these books. https://t.co/W0cieRISYP
Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock
Phil is most famous for his work on forecasting with Barb Mellers and many other fantastic collaborators. You can read about that work in his New York Times best seller, Superforecasting, The Art and Science of Prediction, coauthored with @DGardner. https://t.co/DnyZIDQuve
You Are Not So Smart
David McRaney
Dave is also the author of You are Not so Smart, “an entertaining illumination of the stupid beliefs that make us feel wise.” Super fun book on how we aren’t as rational as we would like to believe. 3/5 https://t.co/JvcKng9PLV
How Minds Change
David McRaney
David just had a new book come out, How Minds Change: The Surprising Science of Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion. It is an Editor’s Pick and Best Books of 2022 so far over on Amazon. I’ve read it and so should you! 2/5 https://t.co/vfS5ZvG4gn
Quit
Annie Duke
The Audible version of #Quit is now available for pre-order. And I just approved the hardcover jacket. It is getting real! https://t.co/QmQUbHIgqz
Quit
Annie Duke
Link to pre-order #Quit here: https://t.co/8LmPo3um9q https://t.co/dfmtxuzFnZ
Just Keep Buying
Nick Maggiulli
Everyone faces big questions when it comes to money: questions about saving, investing, and whether you're getting it right with your finances. Unfortunately, many of the answers provided by the financial industry have been based on belief and conjecture rather than data and evidence--until now. In Just Keep Buying, hugely popular finance blogger Nick Maggiulli crunches the numbers to answer the biggest questions in personal finance and investing, while providing you with proven ways to build your wealth right away. You will learn why you need to save less than you think; why saving up cash to buy market dips isn't a good idea; how to survive (and thrive) during a market crash; and much more. By following the strategies revealed here, you can act smarter and live richer each and every day. It's time to take the next step in your wealth-building journey. It's time to Just Keep Buying.Just Keep Buying by @dollarsanddata is amazing. I was lucky enough to get an advanced copy. If you are already familiar with his blog, you know the quality of his writing. This book does not disappoint! https://t.co/iLFzC6heEl https://t.co/jbebp7fvcG
Journey of the Mind
Ogi Ogas
Two neuroscientists trace a sweeping new vision of consciousness across eighteen increasingly intelligent minds, from microbes to humankind and beyond.Journey of the Mind comes out today! I was lucky enough to read an advanced copy. Amazing exploration of how thinking emerged from the simplest form of life to the human mind. Journey of the Mind: How Thinking Emerged from Chaos https://t.co/srCh8kktDg
Quit
Annie Duke
@RichardPalu You can pre-order here: https://t.co/nEWAnHI46V
Quit
Annie Duke
I’ve been working on a little something over the past year... Coming out October 4th, 2022! https://t.co/cvxOU7S3WJ
How to Change
Katy Milkman
Award-winning Wharton Professor and Choiceology podcast host Katy Milkman has devoted her career to the study of behavior change. In this ground-breaking book, Milkman reveals a proven path that can take you from where you are to where you want to be, with a foreword from psychologist Angela Duckworth, the best-selling author of Grit. Set audacious goals. Foster good habits. Create social support. You've surely heard this advice before. If you've ever tried to change or encourage it -- to boost exercise or healthy eating, to prevent missed deadlines or kick-start savings -- then you know there are thousands of apps, books, and YouTube videos promising to help and offering sound guidance. And yet, you're still not where you want to be. This trailblazing book from award-winning behavioral scientist and Wharton Professor Katy Milkman explains why. In a career devoted to uncovering what helps people change, Milkman has discovered a crucial thing many of us get wrong: our strategy. Change, she's learned, comes most readily when you understand what's standing between you and success and tailor your solution to that roadblock. If you want to work out more but find exercise difficult and boring, downloading a goal-setting app probably won't help. But what if, instead, you transformed your workouts so they became a source of pleasure instead of a chore? Turning an uphill battle into a downhill one is the key to success. Drawing on Milkman's original research and the work of her dozens of world-renowned scientific collaborators, How to Change shares an innovative new approach that will help you change or encourage change in others. Through case studies, engaging stories, and examples from cutting-edge research, this book illustrates how to identify and overcome the barriers that regularly stand in the way of change. How to Change will teach you: * Why timing can be everything when it comes to making a change * How to turn temptation and inertia into assets that can help you conquer your goals * That giving advice, even if it's about something you're struggling with, can help you achieve more Whether you're a manager, coach, or teacher aiming to help others change for the better or are struggling to kick-start change yourself, How to Change offers an invaluable, science-based blueprint for achieving your goals, once and for all.Great book. Great time to read it! https://t.co/gyslXsMx9R
The Power of Us
Jay J. Van Bavel
Check it out and grab your copy today! https://t.co/kSWf339R7t
Maxims for Thinking Analytically
Dan Levy
The goal of this book is to help you think more analytically, which can lead you to better understand the world around you, make smarter decisions, and ultimately live a more fulfilling life. It is based on the ideas of Richard Zeckhauser, a legendary Harvard professor who has helped hundreds of students and colleagues progress toward this goal. It is organized around maxims, one-sentence nuggets of wisdom, illustrated with practical examples from Richard's colleagues and students. Learn how one of Richard's colleagues saved money on her wedding by thinking probabilistically, how Richard and his wife Sally made an agonizing health decision that significantly enhanced Sally's survival probabilities, and how the prime minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, used a maxim he learned from Richard 40 years ago to understand and deal with COVID-19 in his country. The book is for anyone who wants to think more effectively about the world.So excited to get this in the mail today. Wisdom of the great Richard Zeckhauser distilled by the great Dan Levy. I was lucky enough to sit on a Zeckhauser lecture pre-COVID. One of the wisest teachers I have seen. https://t.co/UIyRkfUWpj
Noise
Daniel Kahneman
From the bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the co-author of Nudge, a groundbreaking exploration of why most people make bad judgments, and how to control for that noise. Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients -- or that two judges in the same courthouse give different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different food inspectors give different ratings to indistinguishable restaurants -- or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to be handling the particular complaint. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same inspector, or the same company official makes different decisions, depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Cass R. Sunstein, and Olivier Sibony show how noise contributes significantly to errors in all fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, police behavior, food safety, bail, security checks at airports, strategy, and personnel selection. And although noise can be found wherever people make judgments and decisions, individuals and organizations alike are commonly oblivious to the role of chance in their judgments and in their actions. Drawing on the latest findings in psychology and behavioral economics, and the same kind of diligent, insightful research that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment -- and what we can do about it.I think Noise will make a bigger impact than Thinking Fast and Slow. It is an amazing and deep book exploring an overlooked and under appreciated source of error. Don’t miss this one! https://t.co/9D85WKcZge
The Scout Mindset
Julia Galef
A better way to combat knee-jerk biases and make smarter decisions, from cofounder and president of the Center for Applied Rationality and "Rationally Speaking" podcast host Julia Galef. Our brains lie to us. They've evolved to help us forget or ignore our painful mistakes, while fueling our irrational instincts. But what if we could train our minds to make more rational decisions, without any blow to our confidence? Julia Galef's insight is that most of us naturally have a "soldier" mindset. We protect our beliefs aggressively and ignore any evidence that we might be wrong. This happens when you read a headline suggesting an idea you support isn't as great as it's cracked up to be, and you immediately find flaws in the article. Your mind decides what you want to be true, so you concoct a justification for why, logically, that idea makes the most sense. Galef explains that to be more right more often, we need to approach ideas less like a soldier and more like a scout. A scout surveys the land, seeking accuracy and understanding to find all available information--good and bad--to gain a more holistic picture. While the soldier and the scout are both essential to an actual army, a scout mindset will benefit most of us more in decision-making. With fascinating stories ranging from Warren Buffett's investing strategies to subreddit threads and modern partisan politics, Galef explores why our brains deceive us and what we can do to change the way we think.This book by @juliagalef is awesome. I was lucky enough to read an advance copy. Pre-order. You won’t be sad. https://t.co/s3hTXaZz8A
The Data Detective
Tim Harford
Excited to get The Data Detective in the mail tomorrow (weathering willing)! @TimHarford wraps powerful wisdom on understanding data and statistics in compelling and fun story telling. Great read for navigating our overwhelming information environment. https://t.co/pdjM4uYtgr
How to Change
Katy Milkman
Award-winning Wharton Professor and Choiceology podcast host Katy Milkman has devoted her career to the study of behavior change. In this ground-breaking book, Milkman reveals a proven path that can take you from where you are to where you want to be, with a foreword from psychologist Angela Duckworth, the best-selling author of Grit. Set audacious goals. Foster good habits. Create social support. You've surely heard this advice before. If you've ever tried to change or encourage it -- to boost exercise or healthy eating, to prevent missed deadlines or kick-start savings -- then you know there are thousands of apps, books, and YouTube videos promising to help and offering sound guidance. And yet, you're still not where you want to be. This trailblazing book from award-winning behavioral scientist and Wharton Professor Katy Milkman explains why. In a career devoted to uncovering what helps people change, Milkman has discovered a crucial thing many of us get wrong: our strategy. Change, she's learned, comes most readily when you understand what's standing between you and success and tailor your solution to that roadblock. If you want to work out more but find exercise difficult and boring, downloading a goal-setting app probably won't help. But what if, instead, you transformed your workouts so they became a source of pleasure instead of a chore? Turning an uphill battle into a downhill one is the key to success. Drawing on Milkman's original research and the work of her dozens of world-renowned scientific collaborators, How to Change shares an innovative new approach that will help you change or encourage change in others. Through case studies, engaging stories, and examples from cutting-edge research, this book illustrates how to identify and overcome the barriers that regularly stand in the way of change. How to Change will teach you: * Why timing can be everything when it comes to making a change * How to turn temptation and inertia into assets that can help you conquer your goals * That giving advice, even if it's about something you're struggling with, can help you achieve more Whether you're a manager, coach, or teacher aiming to help others change for the better or are struggling to kick-start change yourself, How to Change offers an invaluable, science-based blueprint for achieving your goals, once and for all..@Katy_Milkman wrote an amazing book. Everyone should preorder _How to Change_ now! Incredible book on habit change and attaining your goals. https://t.co/oWGh8ftzoE
Noise
Daniel Kahneman
From the bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the co-author of Nudge, a groundbreaking exploration of why most people make bad judgments, and how to control for that noise. Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients -- or that two judges in the same courthouse give different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different food inspectors give different ratings to indistinguishable restaurants -- or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to be handling the particular complaint. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same inspector, or the same company official makes different decisions, depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Cass R. Sunstein, and Olivier Sibony show how noise contributes significantly to errors in all fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, police behavior, food safety, bail, security checks at airports, strategy, and personnel selection. And although noise can be found wherever people make judgments and decisions, individuals and organizations alike are commonly oblivious to the role of chance in their judgments and in their actions. Drawing on the latest findings in psychology and behavioral economics, and the same kind of diligent, insightful research that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment -- and what we can do about it.This book will have a deep and positive impact on your decision-making. Cognitive bias is all the rage. But noise may be the bigger flaw in human judgment. https://t.co/JyIPfPIwHv
The Psychology of Money
Morgan Housel
Doing well with money isn’t necessarily about what you know. It’s about how you behave. And behavior is hard to teach, even to really smart people. Money—investing, personal finance, and business decisions—is typically taught as a math-based field, where data and formulas tell us exactly what to do. But in the real world people don’t make financial decisions on a spreadsheet. They make them at the dinner table, or in a meeting room, where personal history, your own unique view of the world, ego, pride, marketing, and odd incentives are scrambled together. In The Psychology of Money, award-winning author Morgan Housel shares 19 short stories exploring the strange ways people think about money and teaches you how to make better sense of one of life’s most important topics.@BestOfBecca @morganhousel Read Morgan’s book first. It is so good! 😊
Think Twice
Michael J. Mauboussin
.@MJMauboussin is the author of another fabulous book, Think Twice: Harnessing The Power of Counterintuition, which explores the common mental missteps we make in our decisions, like misunderstanding cause-and-effect, and how to address those errors. 8/14 https://t.co/F7LQjoG6Y7
The Success Equation
Michael J. Mauboussin
Examines the importance of skill and luck, describes how to develop analytical tools to understand them, and offers suggestions on putting these findings to work to achieve success.This book by @mjmauboussin is quite simply the best discussion out there of the influence of luck in our lives. 7/14 https://t.co/Suk3fsfED2
Range
David Epstein
Shares counterintuitive advice on the most effective path to success in any domain while revealing the essential contributions of generalist, not specialist, team membersBTW, if exploring the advantages of being a generalist in a specialists’ world intrigues you, Range by @DavidEpstein is a must read addition to the topic. 14/16 https://t.co/ILmiaGPG42
Expert Political Judgment
Philip E. Tetlock
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts..@PTetlock also wrote the book, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? This is a must read exploration on the good and bad of deep subject matter expertise. 10/16 https://t.co/IMYffSjJGV
Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock
The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times.@PTetlock is most famous for his work on Superforecasting with his wife and collaborator, Barb Mellers. That work resulted in the must read, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction which he wrote with @DGardner. 2/16 https://t.co/MaezleZV1q
Deep Thinking
Garry Kasparov
Garry Kasparov's 1997 chess match against the IBM supercomputer Deep Blue was a watershed moment in the history of technology. It was the dawn of a new era in artificial intelligence: a machine capable of beating the reigning human champion at this most cerebral game. That moment was more than a century in the making, and in this breakthrough book, Kasparov reveals his astonishing side of the story for the first time. He describes how it felt to strategize against an implacable, untiring opponent with the whole world watching, and recounts the history of machine intelligence through the microcosm of chess, considered by generations of scientific pioneers to be a key to unlocking the secrets of human and machine cognition. Kasparov uses his unrivaled experience to look into the future of intelligent machines and sees it bright with possibility. As many critics decry artificial intelligence as a menace, particularly to human jobs, Kasparov shows how humanity can rise to new heights with the help of our most extraordinary creations, rather than fear them. Deep Thinking is a tightly argued case for technological progress, from the man who stood at its precipice with his own career at stake.Garry is also the author of Deep Thinking, a book that recounts the history of machine learning through the lens of chess. Of course, many will remember @kasparov63 battling deep blue. This book tells his side of the story. 6/8 https://t.co/hYgIKlX7uP
Winter Is Coming
Garry Kasparov
.@Kasparov63 is also a prolific author. He wrote Winter is Coming, a prescient book on the dangers of Vladimir Putin and the stunning story of Russia's slide back into a dictatorship-and how the West is now paying the price for allowing it to happen. 5/8 https://t.co/bqPWE5cbmt
How to Change Your Mind
Michael Pollan
New York Times Book Review 10 Best Books of 2018 A New York Times Notable Book The #1 New York Times bestseller. A brilliant and brave investigation into the medical and scientific revolution taking place around psychedelic drugs--and the spellbinding story of his own life-changing psychedelic experiences When Michael Pollan set out to research how LSD and psilocybin (the active ingredient in magic mushrooms) are being used to provide relief to people suffering from difficult-to-treat conditions such as depression, addiction and anxiety, he did not intend to write what is undoubtedly his most personal book. But upon discovering how these remarkable substances are improving the lives not only of the mentally ill but also of healthy people coming to grips with the challenges of everyday life, he decided to explore the landscape of the mind in the first person as well as the third. Thus began a singular adventure into various altered states of consciousness, along with a dive deep into both the latest brain science and the thriving underground community of psychedelic therapists. Pollan sifts the historical record to separate the truth about these mysterious drugs from the myths that have surrounded them since the 1960s, when a handful of psychedelic evangelists inadvertently catalyzed a powerful backlash against what was then a promising field of research. A unique and elegant blend of science, memoir, travel writing, history, and medicine, How to Change Your Mind is a triumph of participatory journalism. By turns dazzling and edifying, it is the gripping account of a journey to an exciting and unexpected new frontier in our understanding of the mind, the self, and our place in the world. The true subject of Pollan's "mental travelogue" is not just psychedelic drugs but also the eternal puzzle of human consciousness and how, in a world that offers us both suffering and joy, we can do our best to be fully present and find meaning in our lives..@Katy_Milkman is also hard at work on a new book, How to Change, which will be coming out next year. I've had the chance to read an early draft and it's fabulous—a must read for anyone wanting to understand how to make better choices to achieve their long-term goals. 7/10
Think Again
Adam Grant
.@AdamMGrant's new book, Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know, comes out Feb 2021 and examines the art of critical rethinking, question your own opinion, and opening other people’s minds. I’ve already pre-ordered & so should you! 8/10 https://t.co/rWJU4to6SE
Leif and the Fall
Allison Sweet Grant
Persistence and creativity can lead to amazing things, as Leif the leaf discovers in this lovely storybook from Allison Sweet Grant and Adam Grant, the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Originals. Leif is a leaf. A worried leaf. It is autumn, and Leif is afraid to fall. "All leaves fall in the fall," say the other leaves. But Leif is determined to find a different way down, and with his friend Laurel, he uses the resources around him to create a net, a kite, a parachute in hopes of softening his landing. The clock is ticking, the wind is blowing. What will happen when a gust of wind pulls Leif from his branch? In a culture that prizes achievement, kids are often afraid to fail--failing to realize that some of the very ideas that don't work are steps along the path to ones that will.Aside from what I’ve mentioned, @AdamMGrant has co-authored a lovely children’s book, The Lief and the Fall, with his wife, Allison Sweet Grant. 9/10 https://t.co/uCTOdrk8q0
Originals
Adam Grant
"Using surprising studies and stories spanning business, politics, sports, and entertainment, Grant explores how to recognize a good idea, speak up without getting silenced, build a coalition of allies, choose the right time to act, and manage fear and doubt; how parents and teachers can nurture originality in children; and how leaders can fight groupthink to build cultures that welcome dissent"--.@AdamMGrant is also the author of Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World, which made it to #1 on the NYT Bestseller list. Aside from all the usual luminaries heaping prase on this book, @JJAbrams and @RyanSeacrest joined in the praise! 6/10 https://t.co/U8yz7C2nNF
Give and Take
Adam Grant
Don’t take it from me, though. The list of fans of the book speaks for itself: @DanielPink @DanTGilbert @RobertCialdini @SusanCain @ThisIsSethsBlog and Tony Hsieh, to name just a few. 3/10 https://t.co/pS9MzjYWhU
How to Decide
Annie Duke
The Paradox of Experience Experience is necessary for learning, but individual experiences often interfere with learning, in part because of resulting and hindsight bias. Address the paradox to help you learn better lessons from your past. https://t.co/3wByNGgdzg
The Psychology of Money
Morgan Housel
Doing well with money isn’t necessarily about what you know. It’s about how you behave. And behavior is hard to teach, even to really smart people. Money—investing, personal finance, and business decisions—is typically taught as a math-based field, where data and formulas tell us exactly what to do. But in the real world people don’t make financial decisions on a spreadsheet. They make them at the dinner table, or in a meeting room, where personal history, your own unique view of the world, ego, pride, marketing, and odd incentives are scrambled together. In The Psychology of Money, award-winning author Morgan Housel shares 19 short stories exploring the strange ways people think about money and teaches you how to make better sense of one of life’s most important topics.Release day for @MorganHousel book, The Psychology of Money, is out tomorrow. This is going to be a classic. One of the best books I’ve read, lifetime. The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness. https://t.co/EAod6autLU
Nudge
Richard H. Thaler
Offering a groundbreaking study of the application of the science of choice, a guide that uses colorful examples from all aspects of life demonstrates how it is possible to design environments that make it more likely for us to act in our own interests. Reprint..@CassSunstein coauthored Nudge with Nobel Laureate @R_Thaler. Nudge is one of the seminal books in the behavioral economics/policy space. 4/13 https://t.co/3PLxieu0l5
Edge
Laura Huang
Laura Huang, a preeminent Harvard Business School professor, shows that success is about gaining an edge: that elusive quality that gives you an upper hand and attracts attention and support. Some people seem to naturally have it. Now, Huang teaches the rest of us how to create our own from the challenges and biases we think hold us back, and turning them to work in our favor. How do you find a competitive edge when the obstacles feel insurmountable? How do you get people to take you seriously when they're predisposed not to, and perhaps have already written you off? Laura Huang has come up against that problem many times--and so has anyone who's ever felt out of place or underestimated. Many of us sit back quietly, hoping that our hard work and effort will speak for itself. Or we try to force ourselves into the mold of who we think is "successful," stifling the creativity and charm that makes us unique and memorable. In Edge, Huang offers a different approach. She argues that success is rarely just about the quality of our ideas, credentials, and skills, or our effort. Instead, achieving success hinges on how well we shape others' perceptions--of our strengths, certainly, but also our flaws. It's about creating our own edge by confronting the factors that seem like shortcomings and turning them into assets that make others take notice. Huang draws from her award-winning research on entrepreneurial intuition, persuasion, and implicit decision-making, to impart her profound findings and share stories of previously-overlooked Olympians, assistants-turned-executives, and flailing companies that made momentous turnarounds. Through her deeply-researched framework, Huang shows how we can turn weaknesses into strengths and create an edge in any situation. She explains how an entrepreneur scored a massive investment despite initially being disparaged for his foreign accent, and how a first-time political candidate overcame voters' doubts about his physical disabilities. Edge shows that success is about knowing who you are and using that knowledge unapologetically and strategically. This book will teach you how to find your unique edge and keep it sharp.Thank you, Laura!! And quick, everyone, go get Edge. It’s an amazing book! Edge: Turning Adversity into Advantage https://t.co/AMZyNlzNu5 https://t.co/w4x92JZebs
Mastermind
Maria Konnikova
Draws on neuroscience and psychology studies while analyzing the deductive strategies used by the character of Sherlock Holmes to suggest how to promote mental strength, clearer observation, and effective problem-solving.From the @NYTimes review, “An entertaining blend of Holmesiana and modern-day neuroscience.” 8/8 https://t.co/KyY47cNdPl
The Confidence Game
Maria Konnikova
A compelling investigation into the minds, motives, and methods of con artistsand the people who fall for their cons over and over again.As @SAPinker put it, “The story of the con artist may be unmatched for combining human interest with insight into human nature, and star psychology writer Maria Konnikova explains their wiles to us with her characteristic clarity, flair, and depth” 6/8 https://t.co/i3szm1Ybof
The Biggest Bluff
Maria Konnikova
How a New York Times bestselling author and New Yorker contributor parlayed a strong grasp of the science of human decision-making and a woeful ignorance of cards into a life-changing run as a professional poker player, under the wing of a legend of the game It's true that Maria Konnikova had never actually played poker before and didn't even know the rules when she approached Erik Seidel, Poker Hall of Fame inductee and winner of tens of millions of dollars in earnings, and convinced him to be her mentor. But she knew her man: a famously thoughtful and broad-minded player, he was intrigued by her pitch that she wasn't interested in making money so much as learning about life. She had faced a stretch of personal bad luck, and her reflections on the role of chance had led her to a giant of game theory, who pointed her to poker as the ultimate master class in learning to distinguish between what can be controlled and what can't. And she certainly brought something to the table, including a Ph.D. in psychology and an acclaimed and growing body of work on human behavior and how to hack it. So Seidel was in, and soon she was down the rabbit hole with him, into the wild, fiercely competitive, overwhelmingly masculine world of high-stakes Texas Hold'em, their initial end point the following year's World Series of Poker. But then something extraordinary happened. Under Seidel's guidance, Konnikova did have many epiphanies about life that derived from her new pursuit, including how to better read, not just her opponents but far more importantly herself; how to identify what tilted her into an emotional state that got in the way of good decisions; and how to get to a place where she could accept luck for what it was, and what it wasn't. But she also began to win. And win. In a little over a year, she began making earnest money from tournaments, ultimately totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars. She won a major title, got a sponsor, and got used to being on television, and to headlines like "How one writer's book deal turned her into a professional poker player." She even learned to like Las Vegas. But in the end, Maria Konnikova is a writer and student of human behavior, and ultimately the point was to render her incredible journey into a container for its invaluable lessons. The biggest bluff of all, she learned, is that skill is enough. Bad cards will come our way, but keeping our focus on how we play them and not on the outcome will keep us moving through many a dark patch, until the luck once again breaks our way.@MKonnikova is a beautiful writer and The Biggest Bluff is a beautiful book that is a must read. It is, deservedly so, a @nytimes Bestseller! 4/8 https://t.co/Yi4HYHYLna
How to Decide
Annie Duke
Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, this workbook by the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you use a pro and con list, spend a lot of time second guessing or regretting decisions that don't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seeking other people's opinions and trying to find just that little bit more information that might make you sure, or you do the opposite and just go with your gut feeling. But this is exactly the wrong way to go about combating the biases working against you. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? The good news is that decision-making is not a matter of luck or smarts, but a teachable skill that anyone can get better at. And the great news is that even a small improvement in decision-making will make a huge impact on your life. In How to Decide, bestselling author and former professional poker player Annie Duke lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn how to identify and dismantle hidden biases and accept that you can rarely be certain of how things will turn out. Through practical exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, this book is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets..@tcscornavacchi and I talk about a bunch of material from my new book, How to Decide, coming out in September. - Why it’s good to be wrong - Why your gut isn’t a good decision tool - The power of negative thinking https://t.co/Gdu8QjbWJC
The Psychology of Money
Morgan Housel
Doing well with money isn’t necessarily about what you know. It’s about how you behave. And behavior is hard to teach, even to really smart people. Money—investing, personal finance, and business decisions—is typically taught as a math-based field, where data and formulas tell us exactly what to do. But in the real world people don’t make financial decisions on a spreadsheet. They make them at the dinner table, or in a meeting room, where personal history, your own unique view of the world, ego, pride, marketing, and odd incentives are scrambled together. In The Psychology of Money, award-winning author Morgan Housel shares 19 short stories exploring the strange ways people think about money and teaches you how to make better sense of one of life’s most important topics.Oh, and go preorder Morgan’s upcoming book, The Psychology of Money. It’s a great bet. https://t.co/UizqOCnmZ5
The Biggest Bluff
Maria Konnikova
How a New York Times bestselling author and New Yorker contributor parlayed a strong grasp of the science of human decision-making and a woeful ignorance of cards into a life-changing run as a professional poker player, under the wing of a legend of the game It's true that Maria Konnikova had never actually played poker before and didn't even know the rules when she approached Erik Seidel, Poker Hall of Fame inductee and winner of tens of millions of dollars in earnings, and convinced him to be her mentor. But she knew her man: a famously thoughtful and broad-minded player, he was intrigued by her pitch that she wasn't interested in making money so much as learning about life. She had faced a stretch of personal bad luck, and her reflections on the role of chance had led her to a giant of game theory, who pointed her to poker as the ultimate master class in learning to distinguish between what can be controlled and what can't. And she certainly brought something to the table, including a Ph.D. in psychology and an acclaimed and growing body of work on human behavior and how to hack it. So Seidel was in, and soon she was down the rabbit hole with him, into the wild, fiercely competitive, overwhelmingly masculine world of high-stakes Texas Hold'em, their initial end point the following year's World Series of Poker. But then something extraordinary happened. Under Seidel's guidance, Konnikova did have many epiphanies about life that derived from her new pursuit, including how to better read, not just her opponents but far more importantly herself; how to identify what tilted her into an emotional state that got in the way of good decisions; and how to get to a place where she could accept luck for what it was, and what it wasn't. But she also began to win. And win. In a little over a year, she began making earnest money from tournaments, ultimately totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars. She won a major title, got a sponsor, and got used to being on television, and to headlines like "How one writer's book deal turned her into a professional poker player." She even learned to like Las Vegas. But in the end, Maria Konnikova is a writer and student of human behavior, and ultimately the point was to render her incredible journey into a container for its invaluable lessons. The biggest bluff of all, she learned, is that skill is enough. Bad cards will come our way, but keeping our focus on how we play them and not on the outcome will keep us moving through many a dark patch, until the luck once again breaks our way.Did a virtual book club today and was asked to make a recommendation for the next book they should read. Definitely @mkonnikova The Biggest Bluff. A blend of memoir and meditation on luck, uncertainty, and game theory + stunning prose. https://t.co/W8w1jyXKrE https://t.co/AcklsZjJq2
Perfectly Confident
Don A Moore
"Is confidence always a good thing? Don Moore, Professor of Management of Organizations at the Haas School of Business, argues that confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth"--I was lucky enough to get to read an advance copy of Perfectly Confident by @donandrewmoore. It’s out today! Congrats, Don, and a spectacular book. Very confident it will be worth the purchase! https://t.co/IIiZDLtTkz
Thinking in Bets
Annie Duke
Excited that the kindle version of Thinking in Bets is a monthly deal on Amazon. Will be just $2.99 for the whole month. https://t.co/QhuMQDQwZk https://t.co/gkG1hDE6QL
The Psychology of Money
Morgan Housel
Doing well with money isn’t necessarily about what you know. It’s about how you behave. And behavior is hard to teach, even to really smart people. Money—investing, personal finance, and business decisions—is typically taught as a math-based field, where data and formulas tell us exactly what to do. But in the real world people don’t make financial decisions on a spreadsheet. They make them at the dinner table, or in a meeting room, where personal history, your own unique view of the world, ego, pride, marketing, and odd incentives are scrambled together. In The Psychology of Money, award-winning author Morgan Housel shares 19 short stories exploring the strange ways people think about money and teaches you how to make better sense of one of life’s most important topics.I’ve had the privilege of getting to read an advance copy of The Psychology of Money from the fabulous @morganhousel. Go pre-order it right now! Morgan’s insights into the way we think about money are amazing and he sure can spin a compelling narrative. I have writer envy! https://t.co/AajypuGzjP
How to Decide
Annie Duke
Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, this workbook by the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you use a pro and con list, spend a lot of time second guessing or regretting decisions that don't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seeking other people's opinions and trying to find just that little bit more information that might make you sure, or you do the opposite and just go with your gut feeling. But this is exactly the wrong way to go about combating the biases working against you. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? The good news is that decision-making is not a matter of luck or smarts, but a teachable skill that anyone can get better at. And the great news is that even a small improvement in decision-making will make a huge impact on your life. In How to Decide, bestselling author and former professional poker player Annie Duke lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn how to identify and dismantle hidden biases and accept that you can rarely be certain of how things will turn out. Through practical exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, this book is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.Oh, look what just came available for pre-order. Excited to see it in real life! https://t.co/37mgTvYjDI https://t.co/KY8v3pJbin
Indistractable
Nir Eyal
With groundbreaking research and exclusive interviews, Nir Eyal, author of the bestselling Hooked, lays bare the processes of distractions and how we can finally get them under control to give people the ultimate superpower of the 21st century: being indistractable.Indistractable by @nireyal is out today! My copy is already well worn. Awesome book for how to take back control of your attention. Grab yours → https://t.co/GQIpGlPUtf https://t.co/ScO3WspB3S
Thinking in Bets
Annie Duke
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.Amazon’s pricing algorithm remains a mystery to me but that mystery means Thinking in Bets is just $8 today :) https://t.co/2cZYvQnZtY https://t.co/zowtOdeOpF